Department of Labor and Regulation

Title - Labor Market Information Center

2020 visions for South Dakota: occupational employment projections

From the December 2012 South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

The Labor Market Information Center (LMIC) recently completed the 2010 to 2020 round of South Dakota occupational employment projections. Using a nationally-adopted projections methodology allows for comparability of data across states. The methodology incorporates historical time-series employment data as well as state and national economic trends, and uses various statistical models. (A general assumption is made that no major catastrophic events or natural disasters that would significantly affect economic activities of these occupations' industries will occur during the projection period.)

Occupational employment projections indicate which occupations will exhibit above average growth and be in high demand to 2020. Occupational employment projections also supply those who seek or provide career guidance with information on how the labor market is changing. The general outlook for South Dakota is characterized by job growth in the coming decade as our state recovers from the recession. On the national level, many ponder whether the nation will experience a double-dip recession and a stagnated economy or show slow but continued growth. Any of these situations could affect South Dakota's projected outlook.

From 2010 to 2020, the total number of workers in South Dakota is projected to expand by 41,145 to a total of 504,120 (8.9 percent). The average annual demand for workers is projected to be 15,082. Nationally, the total number of workers is projected to increase to 163,537,100 from 143,068,200 (14.3 percent). Nationally, the 2010-20 projections reach a robust 2020 target year largely because the 2010 base year began from a
relatively low point. Rapid growth rates for some measures reflect recovery from the recession and, with some important exceptions, growth beyond recovery. Of the 749 detailed occupations, 657 are projected to grow in the United States, while 92 are projected to decline. The fastest growth is projected to be in health care, personal care, and community and social service occupations. The number of job openings due to growth and replacements is projected to be 54,787,400 (38.3 percent) from 2010 to 2020.

South Dakota projected growth rates are conservative compared to the nation as the recession's impact on employment levels was less severe in our state. While the recession started on a national level in December 2007, it took until fourth quarter of 2008 for the recession to affect employment levels in South Dakota. Returning to pre-recession employment levels is expected to take quite a few years. It is important to note the two main factors expected to impact employment levels are industry growth and changes within the occupational staffing patterns of the industries.

Top 10 in Employment Growth

South Dakota Occupational Employment Projections 2010 - 2020
Top 10 in Growth
Occupational Title
2010
Workers
2020
Workers
Actual
Change
Percent
Growth
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 455 655 200 44.0%
Physician Assistants 425 585 160 37.6%
Personal Financial Advisors 310 415 105 33.9%
Physical Therapist Assistants 285 375 90 31.6%
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic 285 375 90 31.6%
Computer Software Engineers, Applications 435 570 135 31.0%
Medical Assistants 1,190 1,545 355 29.8%
Personal and Home Care Aides 2,310 2,985 675 29.2%
Extruding, Forming, Pressing and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders 450 580 130 28.9%
Helpers--Carpenters 515 660 145 28.2%

Notes:
Data is preliminary and subject to revision.
Data for occupations with less than 200 workers in 2010 not included.
Number of workers data for 2010 and 2020 rounded to nearest five.
Data presented for occupations will not sum to totals due to rounding and non-publishable data for additional occupations included in totals. Demand data is the summation of job openings estimated due to projected employment growth and job openings projected to be created due to replacement need of current workers. Replacement need is estimated by multiplying occupational employment estimates by national replacement rates supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These rates estimate the number of job openings, by occupation, which will be attributed to a worker permanently leaving an occupation (e.g. retirement, death, exits the workforce, etc. ). Average annual demand data are calculated by dividing by 10, the number of years in the projection period. For more information, see the projections methodology on this website.

Source: Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, October 2012

The following narrative includes an overview of the South Dakota occupations which are expected to have the most growth during the 2010-2020 period. It also identifies the occupational groups which are home to these occupations and the industry which typically employs a large share of these occupations.

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts (15-0000)
Network systems and data communications analysts install, configure and support an organization's local area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN), and Internet systems or a segment of a network system. Analysts also analyze, test, troubleshoot and evaluate existing network systems. These analysts are projected to have the largest rate of occupational growth in South Dakota, with projected occupational employment levels indicating an increase of 200 workers (44 percent) over the next 10 years. This occupation is part of the Computer and Mathematical Occupations group, which is projected to add 788,300 workers (22 percent increase) nationally through 2020. This growth can be largely attributed to the fast growth in the Computer Systems Design and Related Services industry. Nationally, this occupation accounts for slightly more than 20 percent of all jobs in the computer occupations in 2010, but is expected to generate more than half of all new computer jobs from 2010 to 2020.

Physician Assistants (29-1071)
Physician assistants provide health care services typically performed by a physician, under the supervision of a physician. They conduct physicals, provide treatment and counsel patients. In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to increase by 160 workers (37.6 percent). Nationally, the physician assistants' occupation is projected to add 24,700 new jobs (29.5 percent) by 2020. This growth is driven by an aging population spending more on health care. As the 65 years and older group grows, one can expect health care spending to follow.

Personal Financial Advisors (13-2052)
Personal financial advisors advise clients on financial plans using knowledge of tax and investment strategies, securities, insurance, pension plans and real estate. They also assess a client's liabilities, assets, insurance, cash flow, tax status and financial objectives. In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to have the third highest increase, with 105 workers (33.9 percent). This occupation is nationally projected to 66,400 new jobs (32.1 percent) between 2010 and 2020. The economy is the driving force behind this industry and related occupations. As the nation recovers from the economic recession, demand for lending and financial advisors is expected to grow.

Physical Therapists' Assistants (31-2021)
Physical therapists' assistants help in providing physical therapy treatments and procedures. They also assist in the development of treatment plans, perform routine functions, document the progress of treatment and modify specific treatments as directed by a physical therapist. South Dakota is projected to add 90 workers (31.6 percent) in this occupation by 2020. This occupation is nationally projected to add 30,800 (45.7 percent) new jobs by 2020. This significant growth is due mainly to an increasingly aging population. As more individuals reach the 65 and older category, the need for and spending on health care and health care support activities rises. The recently passed health care reform legislation is also expected to affect jobs within this group.

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic (51-4011)
Computer-controlled machine tool operators (metal and plastic) operate robots or computer-controlled machines to perform machine functions on metal or plastic work pieces. This occupation in South Dakota is projected to increase by 90 workers (31.6 percent) by 2020. This occupation is classified within the Production Occupations group. Nationally, this occupation is expected to add 24,000 jobs (19.2 percent) by 2020. On a national level, this group is showing slower-than-average growth due to 2.1 million jobs lost when the manufacturing sector was hit hard by the recession. South Dakota was not hit as hard by the recession as nationally, and steady job recovery has strengthened a growth trend in these occupations.

Computer Software Engineers, Applications (15-0000)
Computer software engineers (applications) develop, create and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. They also analyze user needs and develop software solutions. The worker levels in the occupation are projected to increase by 135 (31.0 percent) in South Dakota. This occupation is part of the Computer and Mathematical Occupations group, which is projected to add 788,300 workers (22 percent) nationally through 2020. The detailed group of Software Developers, Systems Software is projected to have the largest growth within the Computer and Mathematical Occupations group at 32.4 percent nationally. The continued demand for advanced technology and software systems is the driving force in the growth of this occupation.

Medical Assistants (31-9092)
Medical assistants may schedule appointments, maintain medical records, and bill and code information for insurance purposes. They perform administrative and clinical duties under the direction of a physician. South Dakota worker levels for this occupation are projected to increase by 355 (29.8 percent). This occupation is nationally projected to add 162,900 (30.9 percent) new jobs by 2020. The medical assistant occupation's growth is driven by increased spending on health care due to an aging population.

Personal and Home Care Aides (39-9021)
Personal and home care aides assist the elderly, convalescents or persons with disabilities with daily living activities at the person's home or in a care facility. The number of workers in this occupation is projected to increase by 675 workers (29.2 percent) in South Dakota through 2020. Nationally, the personal and home care aides' occupation is projected to add 607,000 new jobs (70.5 percent) by 2020. The rapid projected expansion of this healthcare occupation is not unexpected because of the increasing desire of the elderly to live in the comfort of their own homes.

Extruding, Forming, Pressing and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders (51-9041)
These workers set up, operate or tend machines such as glass forming , plodder and tuber machines. These machines shape and form products such as glassware, food, rubber, soap, brick, tile, clay, wax, tobacco or cosmetics. This occupation is projected to add 130 workers (28.9 percent) by 2020 in South Dakota. This occupation is nationally projected to increase at a much slower rate of 1.9 percent and adding only 1,200 jobs through the next 10 years.

Carpenter Helpers (Helpers—Carpenters) (47-3012)
Carpenter helpers assist carpenters by performing duties requiring less skill. The duties performed may include using, supplying or holding materials or tools, and cleaning work areas and equipment. In South Dakota, the number employed in this occupation is projected to increase by 145 workers (28.2 percent) over the next 10 years. This occupation is nationally projected to increase by 25,900 jobs (55.7 percent). The fast-growing construction industry is the driving force in this increase.

Top 10 in Average Annual Openings

South Dakota Occupational Employment Projections 2010 - 2020
Top 10 in Average Annual Openings
Occupational Title
2010
Workers
2020
Workers
Percent Growth
Average Annual Openings
Customer Service Representatives 9,070 10,570 16.5% 436
Registered Nurses 6,395 7,925 23.9% 265
Child Care Workers 6,335 6,935 9.5% 245
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 8,185 8,910 8.9% 218
Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks 10,120 11,040 9.1% 214
Receptionists and Information Clerks 5,365 5,955 11.0% 204
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, except Technical and Scientific Products 4,670 5,220 11.8% 163
Elementary School Teachers, except Special Education 4,515 5,020 11.2% 153
Accountants and Auditors 4,695 5,395 14.9% 149
Carpenters 5,520 6,250 13.2% 142
Notes:
Data is preliminary and subject to revision.
Data for occupations with less than 20 workers in 2010 not included.
Number of workers data for 2010 and 2020 rounded to nearest five.
Data for less than high school diploma not Included.
Data presented for occupations will not sum to totals due to rounding and non-publishable data for additional occupations included in totals. Demand data is the summation of job openings estimated due to projected employment growth and job openings projected to be created due to replacement need of current workers. Replacement need is estimated by multiplying occupational employment estimates by national replacement rates supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These rates estimate the number of job openings, by occupation, which will be attributed to a worker permanently leaving an occupation (e.g. retirement, death, exits the workforce, etc. ). Average annual demand data are calculated by dividing by 10, the number of years in the projection period. For more information, see the projections methodology on this website.

Source: Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, October 2012

Projections of job growth or decline indicate how occupational employment is expected to change, but average annual openings indicate the demand for workers based on both growth and replacement needs. New jobs will account for only a portion of this projection. The other portion will be due to workers retiring, leaving the labor force or transferring from one occupation to another. Please note, we excluded from the table above those occupations that require less than a high school diploma. Those "entry level" occupations by nature have high rates of people advancing to other career fields as they gain more work experience and/or education, and thus historically have higher than average projected demand for workers. In this analysis, we wanted to instead focus on occupations which are projected to have higher-than-average demand more unique to this particular projections period (to 2020). Nationally, about 33.7 million job openings are expected to come from replacement needs, compared with 21.1 million job openings from growth.

Customer Service Representatives (43-4051)
Customer service representatives interact with customers to provide information in response to inquiries about services and products and to handle and resolve complaints. They work in customer contact centers, insurance agencies, banks, stores or other places that have contact with customers. Typically, occupations in this category require a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for customer service representatives is projected to be 436 (16.5 percent) through 2020. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 95,960 average annual openings, and employment is projected to grow by 15.5 percent through 2020.

Registered Nurses (29-1111)
Individuals in this occupation administer nursing care to ill, injured, convalescent or disabled patients. Registered nurses also assess patient health problems and needs, develop and implement nursing care plans, and maintain medical records. Registered nurses are typically required to have an associate degree or more postsecondary education. The average annual demand for registered nurses through 2020 is projected to be 265 in South Dakota. Employment is expected to increase by 23.9 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, registered nurses are projected to have 120,740 average annual openings, and employment is projected to grow by 26 percent through 2020.

Childcare Workers (39-9011)
Childcare workers attend to children at schools, businesses, private households and childcare institutions. They perform tasks such as feeding, bathing and dressing children. Individuals in this occupation are typically required to at least have a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average demand for childcare workers is projected to be 245 openings annually through 2020. Employment is projected to increase by 9.5 percent during this period. Nationally, annual openings for childcare workers are projected to be 66,580, and employment is expected to increase by 20.4 percent through 2020.

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032)
Individuals classified in this occupation drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,000 pounds and are typically required to have a high school diploma. The demand in South Dakota is projected to be 218 openings annually through 2020. Employment is projected to increase by 8.9 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, annual openings for truck drivers are projected to be 64,940, and employment is expected to increase by 20.6 percent through 2020.

Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks (43-3031)
Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks compute, classify and record numerical data to keep financial records current and complete. They also perform any combination of routine calculating, posting and verifying duties to obtain primary financial data for use in maintaining accounting records. Typically, occupations in this category require a high school diploma. South Dakota is projected to have 214 annual openings through 2020, and employment is projected to increase by 9.1 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is projecting this occupation will have 46,780 annual openings and 13.6 percent employment growth to 2020.

Receptionists and Information Clerks (43-4171)
Receptionists and information clerks answer inquiries and provide information to the general public, customers, visitors and other interested parties regarding activities conducted at an establishment. Individuals in this occupation are typically required to have a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for receptionists and information clerks is projected to be 204 and employment is projected to rise 11 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 56,560 average annual openings, and employment is expected to rise by 23.7 percent through 2020.

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, except Technical and Scientific (41-4012)
Individuals in this occupation sell goods for manufacturers and wholesalers to businesses or individuals. Sales representatives typically require a high school diploma and substantial knowledge of the items they sell. The number of average annual openings in this sales representative occupation is projected to be 163 in South Dakota through 2020. Employment is expected to grow by 11.8 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 55,990 average annual openings, and total employment is expected to grow by 15.6 percent through 2020.

Elementary School Teachers, except Special Education (25-2021)
Individuals in this occupation teach students basic social, academic and other formative skills in public or private elementary schools. Individuals in this occupation typically are required to obtain a bachelor's degree. The average annual demand in South Dakota for elementary school teachers is projected to be 153 openings through 2020. Employment is projected to grow by 11.2 percent over the 10-year period in South Dakota. According to the BLS, this occupation is nationally projected to have 57,320 average annual openings, and employment is expected to increase by 16.8 percent.

Accountants and Auditors (13-2011)
Accountants and auditors examine, analyze and interpret accounting records to prepare financial statements. Individuals in this occupation also install or advise on systems of recording costs or other financial and budgetary data. They usually must obtain a bachelor's degree. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for accountants and auditors is projected to be 149 openings. Employment is expected to increase by 14.9 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, accountants and auditors are projected to have 45,210 annual openings, with employment expected to rise by 15.7 percent through 2020.

Carpenters (47-2031)
Carpenters construct, erect, install or repair structures and fixtures made of wood. Examples of carpentry include building frameworks, joists, studding, rafters, door frames and hardwood floors. Individuals in this occupation may also install cabinetry, siding, drywall or insulation. Carpenters typically need the minimum of a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for carpenters is projected to be 142 openings through 2020. Employment is expected to grow by 13.2 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 40,830 annual openings and employment growth of 19.6 percent through 2020.

For employment and demand projections for a complete list of occupations, see "Employment Projections" on the Labor Market Information Center website.

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Marcia Hultman, Secretary
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