Program History

The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a federal-state cooperative which all states have been a part of since the CES program started in 1939. The federal partner is the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, which gives funding, guidelines and support to all states so that estimated and historical time series on employment, hours and earnings data can be computed and maintained for multiple types of industries within a state sub-state area(s). The BLS also produces national nonfarm wage and salaried worker data using the CES program. (Click here to see National CES data).

Uses

Since all states use the same BLS guidelines to maintain historical series and produce nonfarm worker estimates, each state’s CES data can be compared to national CES trends or to other states’ CES data. (Click here to see all states' CES data). Looking at worker trends has been established as one of the best ways to gauge a state’s (or individual industry's) economic health. The logic is simple and has stood the test of time: businesses typically hire when their goods or services are in demand and reduce worker numbers as demand for their goods or services decline. That is why the CES survey is one of the most watched and used time series and current economic indicators.

CES in South Dakota

The Labor Marker Information Center (LMIC) produces statewide and Rapid City and Sioux Falls Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) data for nonfarm wage and salaried workers. The CES survey collects payroll data from South Dakota business establishments, where the data refers to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period(s) which includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. The employment data are then estimated using a "link relative" technique in which a ratio (link relative) of current month employment to that of the previous month is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are obtained by multiplying the estimates for the previous month by these ratios.

Preliminary Estimates and Final Estimates

Preliminary estimates are produced one month behind the current month. For example, in the month of June, May preliminary nonfarm wage and salaried worker data is published. Final estimates are produced two months behind the current month. For example, in the month of June, final April nonfarm wage and salaried worker data is published. 

Differences from Preliminary Estimates to Final Estimates 

If a business pays its employees once a week, the employment data for that business would only show those workers who were employed that week; whereas an employer that pays once a month will show employment data for all workers who were employed that month. The establishments that pay weekly, bi-weekly and twice a month are usually included in the preliminary estimates, since their earlier pay periods allow ample time for the CES program to collect the data before estimation is done. Those establishments that pay once a month are not always able to send their payroll data to the CES program in time for the preliminary estimates, but their data is available for the final estimates. For this reason, it is important to remember that preliminary estimates are more volatile than final estimates.

Benchmarking

Once a year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates have to be benchmarked (or revised) using actual worker data from other sources that were not available at the time of estimation, such as unemployment insurance (UI) tax records and non-UI tax businesses whose data is gathered through Presumed Non-Covered (PNC) surveys. The benchmarking sources show the actual employment counts and are used to revise estimated data to actual data while retaining the series as a time series. These revisions are published in the month of February with the publication of January preliminary employment data. Any data from the previous March and further back is considered “benchmarked,” as the estimates are replaced with actual worker data. Any data from the previous April forward is considered estimated data, as it will be not be benchmarked until the next benchmark cycle.

Preliminary Benchmarked Data   

As actual worker data is reported over time, we sometimes find that one or more non-CES reporting establishments produced changes that were not captured by the CES program. There are also times that natural disasters happen, and the CES survey is unable to capture the complete effect. Even though the estimation errors are considered acceptable by most and the LMIC is not required to disclose them, we do disclose these errors so that individuals, businesses, economic developers and government officials can make very informed decisions based on our data.  Initial benchmark data is not published, but all corrections will be incorporated into the published benchmarked data that is released in February.

Nonfarm Wage & Salaried Workers

Nonfarm wage and salaried worker estimates include all full-time and part-time wage earners but exclude the self-employed, private households, all agriculture production except logging, and unpaid family workers.

Seasonal Employment

Seasonal employment is expected employment fluctuations that occur basically at the same time of the year. Seasonal employment is usually caused by normal and expected changes in the weather and from non-random cycles or events. Examples would be late fall freezing weather stopping construction activities, teachers and staff starting a new school year, or state, county and regional fairs causing employment increases.

Production workers

Production workers are nonfarm wage and salaried workers involved directly in the production of goods or in the provision of services. This includes all types of workers except those whose major responsibility is to supervise, plan or direct the work of others. Working supervisors and group leaders who may be "in charge" of a group of employees, but whose supervisory functions are only incidental to their regular work, are included as production workers.

Manufacturing Production Worker Hours and Earnings Data

Hours and earnings data are derived from employer reports of payrolls and hours for production and related workers in the manufacturing industry. The data cover full- and part-time employees who worked during and received pay for the payroll period that includes the 12th of the month. The earnings figures are "gross" figures. They may be higher than employee wage rates since they reflect premium pay for shift differentials and overtime work. The hours figures relate to the hours for which pay was received; this is different from scheduled or standard work hours.

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Areas qualifying as a Metropolitan Statistical Area according to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) must have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties.

Rapid City MSA - Pennington & Meade counties

Sioux Falls MSA - Lincoln, Minnehaha, McCook & Turner counties

NAICS

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) was designed by the United States, Canada and Mexico so that a common classification system between the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners could be established. The NAICS allowed industry comparability between counties while allowing detailed analysis down to sub-state levels. NAICS is the current industry classification system that is used by BLS and the LMIC. Click here for the online NAICS manual.