Department of Labor and Regulation

Title - Labor Market Information Center

South Dakota occupational employment projections to 2022

From the July 2014 South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

The Labor Market Information Center (LMIC) recently completed the 2012 to 2022 round of South Dakota occupational employment projections. Use of a nationally-adopted projections methodology allows for comparability of data across states. The methodology incorporates historical time-series employment data as well as state and national economic trends and uses various statistical models. (A general assumption is made that no major catastrophic events or natural disasters that would significantly affect economic activities of the occupations' industries will occur during the projection period.)

Occupational employment projections indicate which occupations will exhibit above average growth and be in high demand to 2022. Occupational employment projections also supply those who seek or provide career guidance with information on how the labor market is changing. The general outlook for South Dakota is characterized by job growth in the coming decade, based on historical trends. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of workers in South Dakota is projected to expand by 33,265 to a total of 505,870 (7.0 percent). The average annual demand for workers is projected to be 14,728. Nationally, the total number of workers is projected to increase to 160,983,700 from 145,355,800 10.8 percent. Of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest percentage increase between 2012 and 2022 nationally, 14 are related to health care and five are related to construction, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Every major occupational group except the Farming, Fishing and Forestry Occupations group is projected to gain jobs over the next 10 years.

The conservative growth rate for South Dakota compared to the nation is related to the recent recession. While the recession started on a national level in December of 2007, it took until the fourth quarter of 2008 for the recession to affect employment levels in South Dakota. Therefore, South Dakota is projected to have a more conservative growth rate than the nation because the recession's impact was less severe in our state.

Occupations Projected to Grow the Fastest

The following narrative includes an overview of the occupations which are expected to have the fastest employment growth from 2012 to 2022. It also identifies the occupational groups which are home to these occupations and the industry which typically employs a large share of these occupations.

South Dakota Occupational Employment Projections 2012 - 2022
Top Ten Fastest Growing
Occupational Title
2012
Workers
2022
Workers
Actual
Change
Percent
Growth
Interpreters and Translators 285 400 115 40.4%
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 300 400 100 33.3%
Welding, Soldering and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders 550 720 170 30.9%
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 410 535 125 30.5%
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic 330 420 90 27.3%
Physical Therapist Assistants 240 305 65 27.1%
Industrial Machinery Mechanics 845 1,070 225 26.6%
Helpers--Electricians 395 500 105 26.6%
Meeting, Convention and Event Planners 305 380 75 24.6%
Physician Assistants 470 585 115 24.5%
Notes:
Data is preliminary and subject to revision.
Data for occupations with less than 200 workers in 2012 not included.
Number of workers data for 2012 and 2022 rounded to nearest five.
Data for occupations requiring less than a High School Diploma not Included.
Data presented for occupations will not sum to totals due to rounding and non-publishable data for additional occupations included in totals. Demand data is the summation of job openings estimated due to projected employment growth and job openings projected to be created due to replacement need of current workers. Replacement need is estimated by multiplying occupational employment estimates by national replacement rates supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These rates estimate the number of job openings, by occupation, which will be attributed to a worker permanently leaving an occupation (e.g. retirement, death, exits the workforce, etc.). Average annual demand data are calculated by dividing by ten, the number of years in the projection period. For more information, see projections methodology.
Source: Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, July 2014

Interpreters and Translators (27-3091)
Interpreters and translators interpret oral or sign language, or translate written text from one language into another. Individuals in this category also adapt software and accompanying technical documents to other languages and cultures. This occupation is part of the Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media Occupations group (27-0000). Interpreters and translators are projected to have the largest rate of occupational growth in South Dakota, with projected occupational employment levels indicating an increase of 115 workers (40.4 percent) over the next 10 years. Nationally, interpreters and translators are projected to add 29,300 workers (46.1 percent) through 2022. The major employer of individuals in this occupation is the Professional and Technical Services industry.

Diagnostic Medical Sonographers (29-2032)
Diagnostic medical sonographers produce ultrasonic recordings of internal organs for use by physicians. They also have tasks such as cleaning, checking and maintaining sonographic equipment and submitting maintenance requests or performing minor repairs. In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to have the second fastest increase, with 100 workers (33.3 percent). This occupation is nationally projected to add 27,000 new jobs (46 percent) between 2012 and 2022. Individuals in this job classification belong to the Health Care Practitioners and Technical Occupations group (29-0000). Most individuals in this occupation work in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. The driving force behind the large projected increases in healthcare fields is an aging population.

Welding, Soldering and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators (51-4122)
Individuals in this occupation set up, operate or tend welding, soldering or brazing machines or robots that weld, braze, solder or heat treat metal products, components or assemblies. Individuals who operate laser cutters or laser-beam machines are also included in this occupation. This occupation is projected to add 170 workers (30.9 percent) by 2022 in South Dakota. Nationally, this occupation is projected to increase by 10,600 workers (19.8 percent) by 2022. These setters and operators belong to the Production Occupations (51-0000) group, which as a whole is projected to grow at a much faster rate in South Dakota then it is nationally.

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists (13-1161)
Individuals in this occupation research market conditions in local, regional or national areas, or gather information to determine potential sales of a product of service, or create marketing campaigns. They may gather information on competitors, prices, sales and methods of marketing and distribution. Market research analysts and marketing specialists are part of the Business and Financial Operations Occupations group (13-0000). In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to have an increase of 125 workers (30.5 percent). Nationally, this occupation is projected to increase by 131,500 workers (31.6 percent) by 2022. Market Research Analysts are mostly employed in the Professional and Technical Services industry.

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic (51-4011)
Computer-controlled machine tool operators (metal and plastic) operate robots or computer-controlled machines to perform machine functions on metal or plastic work pieces. This occupation in South Dakota is projected to increase by 90 workers (27.3 percent) by 2022. Nationally, this occupation is projected to add 20,400 workers (14.5 percent) through 2022. This occupation is classified within the Production Occupations group (51-0000). Production occupations are projected to have little or no growth nationally. The manufacturing industry accounts for the largest share of workers in this occupation, which the BLS projected to decline 4.6 percent by 2022. In South Dakota, the manufacturing sector is projected to increase by 7.1 percent; which has a direct relationship and impact on the occupational projections in the production occupations.

Physical Therapist Assistants (31-2021)
Physical therapist assistants help provide physical therapy treatments and procedures. They also assist in the development of treatment plans, perform routine functions, document the progress of treatment and modify specific treatments as directed by a physical therapist. This occupation is classified within the Healthcare Support Occupations group (31-0000). South Dakota is projected to add 65 workers (27.1 percent) in this occupation by 2022. Physical therapist assistants nationally are projected to add 29,300 (41 percent) workers by 2022. This significant growth is due mainly to an increasingly aging population. As more individuals turn 65 years and older, the need for health care and health care support workers rises. The recently passed health care reform legislation is also expected to affect jobs within this group.

Industrial Machinery Mechanics (49-9041)
Individuals in the industrial machinery mechanics occupation repair, install, adjust or maintain industrial production and processing machinery or refinery and pipeline distribution systems. In South Dakota, industrial machinery mechanics are projected to increase by 225 workers (26.6 percent) by 2022. At the national level, industrial machinery mechanics are projected to add 60,300 (18.9 percent) jobs by 2022. Individuals in this occupation are classified as part of the Installation, Maintenance and Repair Occupations group (49-0000).

Helpers - Electricians (47-3013)
Electrician helpers assist electricians by performing duties requiring less skill. Duties include using, supplying or holding materials or tools, and cleaning the work area and equipment. This occupation is classified within the Construction and Extraction Occupations group (47-0000).In South Dakota, the number employed in this occupation is projected to increase by 105 workers (26.6 percent) over the next 10 years. This occupation is nationally projected to increase by 22,400 jobs (36.9 percent). In South Dakota the construction industry is projected to be one of the fastest-growing which is the driving force behind the increase in this occupation.

Meeting, Convention and Event Planners (13-1121)
Individuals in this occupation coordinate activities of staff, convention personnel or clients to make arrangements for group meetings, events or conventions. Some job titles associated with this occupation are convention services manager, catering manager, event manager, and conference planner. In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to increase by 75 workers (24.6 percent). This occupation is nationally projected to add 31,300 new jobs (33.2 percent) between 2012 and 2022. This occupation is included in the Business and Financial Operations Occupations group (13-0000).

Physician Assistants (29-1071)
Physician assistants provide health care services typically performed by a physician, under the supervision of a physician. They conduct physicals, provide treatment and counsel patients. In some cases they prescribe medication. In South Dakota, this occupation is projected to increase by 115 workers (24.5 percent). Nationally, this occupation is projected to add 33,300 new jobs (38.4 percent) by 2022. Once again, this growth is mainly driven by an aging population.

Occupations Projected to Be in Greatest Demand

Projections of job growth or decline indicate how occupational employment is expected to change, but average annual openings indicate the demand for workers based on both growth and replacement needs. New jobs will account for only a portion of this projection. The other portion will be due to workers retiring, leaving the labor force or transferring from one occupation to another. Please note, we excluded from the table above those occupations that require less than a high school diploma. Those entry-level occupations, by nature, have high rates of people advancing to other career fields as they gain more work experience and/or education, and thus historically have higher-than-average projected demand for workers. In this analysis, we wanted to instead focus on occupations which are projected to have higher-than-average demand more unique to this particular projections period (2012 to 2022).

South Dakota Occupational Employment Projections 2012 - 2022
Top Ten in Average Annual Openings
Occupational Title 2012 Workers 2022 Workers Percent Growth Average Annual Openings
Registered Nurses 11,380 12,870 13.10% 370
Customer Service Representatives 8,870 9,785 10.30% 333
Childcare Workers 6,535 7,365 12.70% 275
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 8,790 9,300 5.80% 192
Nursing Assistants 6,310 6,885 9.10% 177
Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks 10,465 11,275 7.70% 177
Accountants and Auditors 4,295 4,670 8.70% 164
Carpenters 6,075 6,920 13.90% 160
Receptionists and Information Clerks 5,010 5,250 4.80% 159
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, except Technical and Scientific Products 5,280 5,715 8.20% 147
Notes:
Data is preliminary and subject to revision.
Data for occupations with less than 20 workers in 2012 not included.
Number of workers data for 2012 and 2022 rounded to nearest five.Data for occupations requiring less than a High School Diploma not Included.
Data presented for occupations will not sum to totals due to rounding and non-publishable data for additional occupations included in totals. Demand data is the summation of job openings estimated due to projected employment growth and job openings projected to be created due to replacement need of current workers. Replacement need is estimated by multiplying occupational employment estimates by national replacement rates supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These rates estimate the number of job openings, by occupation, which will be attributed to a worker permanently leaving an occupation (e.g. retirement, death, exits the workforce, etc.). Average annual demand data are calculated by dividing by ten, the number of years in the projection period. For more information, see projections methodology.
Source: Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, July 2014

Registered Nurses (29-1141)
Individuals in this occupation administer nursing care to ill, injured, convalescent or disabled patients. Registered nurses also assess patient health problems and needs, develop and implement nursing care plans, and maintain medical records. Registered nurses are typically required to have an associate degree or more postsecondary education. With a projected average annual demand of 370 workers, registered nurses rank first among South Dakota's high demand occupations through 2022. Employment is expected to increase by 13.1 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, registered nurses are projected to have 105,260 average annual openings and employment is projected to grow by 19.4 percent through 2022.

Customer Service Representatives (43-4051)
Customer service representatives interact with customers to provide information in response to inquiries about services and products and to handle and resolve complaints. They work in customer contact centers, insurance agencies, banks, stores or other places that have contact with customers. Typically, occupations in this category require a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for customer service representatives is projected to be 333 (10.3 percent) through 2022. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 94,160 average annual openings, and employment is projected to grow by 12.6 percent through 2022.

Child Care Workers (39-9011)
Child care workers attend to children at schools, businesses, private households and childcare institutions. They perform tasks such as feeding, bathing and dressing children. Individuals in this occupation are typically required to at least have a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average demand for child care workers is projected to be 275 openings annually through 2022. Employment is projected to increase by 12.7 percent during this period. Nationally, annual openings for childcare workers are projected to be 57,000 and employment is expected to increase by 14 percent through 2022.

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032)
Individuals classified in this occupation drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,000 pounds and are typically required to have at least a high school diploma. The demand in South Dakota is projected to be 192 openings annually through 2022. Employment is projected to increase by 5.8 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, annual openings for truck drivers are projected to be 46,470 and employment is expected to increase by 11.3 percent through 2022.

Nursing Assistants (31-1014)
Nursing assistants provide basic patient care under the direction of a nursing staff. They feed, bathe, dress, groom or move patients or change linens. A nursing assistant may also transfer or transport patients. Typically, occupations in this category require at least a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for nursing assistants is projected to be 177 (9.1 percent growth) through 2022. Over the same time frame nationally, annual openings for nursing assistants are projected to be 59,360 and an increased growth rate of 21.1 percent.

Bookkeeping, Accounting and Auditing Clerks (43-3031)
Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks compute, classify and record numerical data to keep financial records current and complete. They also perform any combination of routine calculating, posting and verifying duties to obtain primary financial data for use in maintaining accounting records. Typically, occupations in this category require at least a high school diploma. South Dakota is projected to have 177 annual openings through 2022, and employment is projected to increase by 7.7 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, BLS is projecting this occupation will have 37,000 annual openings and 11.4 percent employment growth to 2022.

Accountants and Auditors (13-2011)
Accountants and auditors examine, analyze and interpret accounting records to prepare financial statements. Individuals in this occupation also install or advise on systems of recording costs or other financial and budgetary data. They usually must obtain a bachelor's degree. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for accountants and auditors is projected to be 164 openings. Employment is expected to increase by 8.7 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, accountants and auditors are projected to have 54,420 annual openings, with employment expected to rise by 13.1 percent through 2022.

Carpenters (47-2031)
Carpenters construct, erect, install or repair structures and fixtures made of wood. Examples of carpentry include building frameworks, joists, studding, rafters, door frames and hardwood floors. Individuals in this occupation may also install cabinetry, siding, drywall or insulation. Carpenters typically need a high school diploma at minimum. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for carpenters is projected to be 160 openings through 2022. Employment is expected to grow by 13.9 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 32,920 average annual openings and employment growth of 24.2 percent through 2022.

Receptionists and Information Clerks (43-4171)
Receptionists and information clerks answer inquiries and provide information to the general public, customers, visitors and other interested parties regarding activities conducted at an establishment. Individuals in this occupation are typically required to have a high school diploma. In South Dakota, the average annual demand for receptionists and information clerks is projected to be 159 and employment is projected to rise by 4.8 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 40,690 average annual openings, and employment is expected to rise by 13.5 percent through 2022.

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, except Technical and Scientific (41-4012)
Individuals in this occupation sell goods for manufacturers and wholesalers to businesses or individuals. Sales representatives typically need a high school diploma and substantial knowledge of the items they sell. The number of average annual openings for this sales representative occupation is projected to be 147 in South Dakota through 2022. Employment is expected to grow by 8.2 percent over the 10-year period. Nationally, this occupation is projected to have 42,070 average annual openings, and total employment is expected to grow by 8.9 percent through 2022.

Find complete occupational employment and demand projections on the Labor Market Information Center website.

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Marcia Hultman, Secretary
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